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The odds board for tonight’s Super Start Batteries 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN) at Kansas Speedway is extremely top-heavy.
On the flip side, this results in solid drivers in good equipment being priced as longer shots than they necessarily should be.
Sometimes, I’ll jump on these long shots outright, while in other instances I prefer to play them in props — NASCAR’s Super Start Batteries at Kansas is one of these instances.
Here’s a look at two prop bets I’m making for tonight’s race.
Follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for Kansas.
NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Betting Picks
Odds as of Thursday at 6 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Matt DiBenedetto (+140) for a Top-10 Finish
Just like Ryan Blaney outright, I’m back on DiBenedetto for a top-10 finish. Matty D easily had a top-10 car (again) at Texas last weekend and at times showed top-five speed.
Unfortunately, an ill-timed caution and later an even more poorly timed move by Quin Houff ended DiBenedetto’s chance of cashing our top-10 prop, but the speed was there.
As mentioned above, with so many favorites bunched toward the top of the odds board, sportsbooks do not have the luxury of adjusting the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford to where it should be, meaning there’s still plenty of value in the +140 number.
Austin Dillon (+165) for a Top-10 Finish
Interestingly, the logjam among the favorites has also kept Dillon’s odds in check despite his shocking win last week at Texas.
Over the five races run at smooth, 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas, two at Charlotte, Kentucky and Texas) this season, Dillon owns the fifth-best average finish and the eighth-best average running position, suggesting he’s not simply stealing top-10 finishes, he’s consistently running there as well.
In fact, Austin has piloted the No. 3 Chevy to top 10s in three of those five races, so it’s not like his win at Texas is skewing those averages by itself.
Dillon has been a top-10 performer at similar racetracks to Kansas, showing why +165 is very playable.